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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2024-07-19T22:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-07-19T22:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/32066/-1
CME Note: [IN REVIEW] CME visible to the SE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. Overlaps with CME: 2024-07-19T20:36Z in the field of view of the coronagraphs. The potential source may be a secondary eruption near the filament eruption centered around S30W15 as seen in SDO AIA 304 imagery starting around 2024-07-19T18:30Z. Dimming can be seen slightly south of this eruption, near S35E10, starting around 2024-07-19T20:37Z in SDO AIA 193. It is also visible in STEREO A EUV imagery following a data gap from 2024-07-19T13:35Z to 22:55Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-07-23T19:48Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-07-22T20:19Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: SARM
Prediction Method Note: 
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-07-20 04:39
 - Time at C2: 2024-07-19 22:24
 - Radial speed: 531.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 25 deg
 - Eruption location: S19E12
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - In-situ shock speed: 565.30 km/s
   - Shock arrival time: 2024-07-22 20:19 (i.e. predicted transit time: 69.92 hours)
Lead Time: 47.63 hour(s)
Difference: 23.48 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Marlon Nunez (UMA) on 2024-07-21T20:10Z
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